Banks from profiteering to survival problems, bad risks continue to expose 刀神天后

Profits from the bank to face the problem of existence of bad constantly exposed to the risk of "bank profits from high announced to" feel shy "thinking ‘alive’", in the past four years, the domestic commercial banks suffered by Sheng Zhuanshuai cold. In the macroeconomic situation of the economic downturn, companies operating in poor condition, bad rebound, the bank also faces many unfavorable factors of the interest rate market, business transformation, Internet financial competition, commercial banks suffered torture profit growth, asset quality deterioration. In 2016, analysts said, it was also a difficult year for banks. Four years of catastrophe at the end of 2011, Hong Qi then Minsheng Bank governor said in a public occasion, "the banking industry these years figures are very bright, operating pressure of the capital needs of enterprises, big banks are thriving, profits are high, profits are too high and sometimes feel shy released". Hong Qi’s words caused great uproar at that time, and the bank profits and so on. More than four years have passed, and he has become the chairman of Minsheng Bank Chairman, and he added "the truth"". In the days before taking part in a forum, Hong Qi said, "in fact, in recent years the financial problems facing the ‘alive’. In the course of the economic downturn, the interest rate market, banks are facing technical disintermediation, financial disintermediation, profit margins compressed, non-performing assets have actually been in the outbreak, the huge pressure of bank". Two distinct statements highlight the dramatic changes in the banking environment in recent years. In 2011, when the banking industry developed a golden period, the net profit of commercial banks in the whole year exceeded the trillion yuan for the first time, reaching 10412 yuan, an increase of 36.34% over the previous year. Net profit of 16 listed banks increased by about 28.97%. Listed on the people’s livelihood, Huaxia Bank net profit growth rate reached more than 50%, even up to the deep development of the rapid growth of 64.55%; investment, Pudong, Ningbo, China Everbright, CITIC Bank net profit growth of more than 40%; even in the state owned bank, ICBC, China Construction Bank, agricultural bank, bank and other banks can achieve net profit the growth rate of more than 20%. In 2015, the net profit of commercial banks reached 15926 yuan, representing a year-on-year growth rate of only 2.43%. Even the best in the banking sector, the listed banks have also suffered a sharp decline in profit growth. As of yesterday evening, 8 listed banks have released the 2015 performance bulletin. In addition to the Bank of Nanjing net profit rose 24.86%, most banks had a double-digit growth, the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank net profit rose 7.6%, industrial bank, Huaxia Bank, an increase of 6.62% year-on-year growth of 5.02%, growth of 3.51%, China Merchants Bank, Minsheng Bank, CITIC Bank, an increase of 3.11% year-on-year growth of 1.15%. Did not disclose the results of letters of state-owned big firms approaching "zero growth", the first three quarters of last year, ICBC, China Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China net profit growth of only 0.59%, 0.66%, 0.51% and 0.31%, from the current situation, the line net profit last year on

银行从暴利走向面临生存问题 不良风险不断暴露   从“银行利润高得不好意思公布”到“思考‘活着’问题”,在过去的四年多时间里,国内商业银行遭遇了由盛转衰的寒流。在经济下行、企业经营状况不佳、不良反弹的宏观形势下,银行也面临着利率市场化、业务转型、互联网金融竞争等诸多不利因素,商业银行遭受着利润增长乏力、资产质量恶化的双重折磨。而在分析人士看来,2016年同样是银行较为困难的一年。   四年突变   2011年底,时任民生银行行长一职的洪崎曾在某公开场合表示,“银行业这些年数字非常亮丽,企业的资金需求、经营压力很大,银行业则一枝独秀、利润很高,有时候利润太高了都不好意思公布”。洪崎这番话曾在当时引起轩然大波,银行暴利等指责扑面而来。   四年多过去了,已经成为民生银行董事长的洪崎又说了“大实话”。在日前参加某论坛时,洪崎表示,“金融其实在这几年面临着‘活着’的问题。在经济下行、利率市场化的过程中,银行面临着技术脱媒、金融脱媒、利润空间压缩的问题,不良资产实际上已经在爆发,银行压力巨大”。   两种截然不同的表态凸显了银行业近年来生存环境的巨大变化。2011年正值银行业发展黄金期,当年商业银行全行业的净利润首次突破万亿元,达10412亿元,比上年增长36.34%。16家上市银行净利润增幅约28.97%。民生、华夏等多家上市银行净利润增速达到50%以上,深发展甚至达到64.55%的快速增长;招商、浦发、光大、中信、宁波等银行净利润增速也超过40%;即便在国有大行中,工行、建行、农行、交行等银行也能达到20%以上的净利润增速。   寒冬渐近   而到了2015年,商业银行全行业净利润规模达到15926亿元,同比增速仅为2.43%。即便是银行业中的佼佼者,上市银行也出现了利润增速大幅下滑的窘境。   截至昨日晚间,上市银行中已有8家发布了2015年业绩快报。除南京银行实现净利润同比增长24.86%外,多数银行出现了个位数增长,其中浦发银行净利润同比增长7.6%、兴业银行同比增长6.62%、华夏银行同比增长5.02%、民生银行增长3.51%、招商银行同比增长3.11%、中信银行同比增长1.15%。并未公布业绩快报的国有大行更趋近“零增长”,去年前三季度, 工行、建行、农行和中行净利润分别仅增长0.59%、0.66%、0.51%和0.31%,从目前情况来看,上述大行净利润在去年四季度大幅飙升的可能性也不大。   作为顺周期行业,经济增长对银行盈利能力影响颇大。根据此前中行对16家上市银行近几年数据测算,GDP增速每下降1个百分点,银行业净利润增速将下降9个百分点。中行分析人士认为,目前中国经济正处于新旧动能转换阶段,2016年是转型的关键时期,经济仍面临一定下行压力,预计GDP增速在6.8%左右,上市银行整体净利润增速将出现“零增长”。   不良率上升   除此之外,不良资产风险的暴露更是令银行雪上加霜。银监会数据显示,截至2015年底,商业银行业全行业不良贷款余额升至12744亿元,较2014年底大增51.2%;不良贷款率1.67%,较2014年底上升0.42个百分点。拨备问题随之而来,根据银监会规定,银行的拨备覆盖率不得低于150%,这意味着当银行出现1单位不良贷款时,商业银行应该至少从利润中计提1.5单位拨备。不良贷款越多,从利润中计提的资金越多,银行被蚕食的利润空间就越大。   受累于不良风险的暴露以及降息政策的接连冲击,2016年商业银行仍将面临较大经营压力。交通银行首席经济学家连平指出, 2015年央行多次降息将继续影响银行收入,许多银行是在年初调整存贷款利息,因此多次降息效果在今年会集中体现,银行利差压力比2015年还要大,目前还未看到拐点。2015年上市银行净利润增速预计为1.8%左右,2016年商业银行仍将面临较大经营压力,预计上市银行净利润增长1%左右,营业收入增速或将进一步放缓至9%左右。   北京商报记者 孟凡霞 文 胡潇 制表 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: